The chairman of the International Energy Agency has cautioned that the “energy conflict” between Europe and Russia is not over, despite a significant decline in wholesale gas prices that has alleviated concerns about high bills and outages.

Europe’s efforts to replace Russian gas supplies this winter were a “huge success,” according to Fatih Birol, who added that there were residual concerns about next winter.

In response to western assistance for Ukraine, Vladimir Putin weaponized Russian gas last year, limiting supply into Europe and leaving countries scrambling to replace supplies for the winter. Due to favourable weather and efforts by businesses and people to reduce energy consumption, European nations acted swiftly last autumn to replenish gas storage facilities, and supplies have not been drained at the projected rate over the winter.

Birol stated, “Russia played the energy card and lost… Nonetheless, concluding that Europe has already won the energy war would be a stretch.”

“I believe Europe performed admirably, [its approach] has been a tremendous success. But, overconfidence for the upcoming winter is hazardous, and it is time to continue and intensify work for 2023.”

This Thursday, the investment firm Jefferies reported that European gas storage facilities were 64% filled, significantly above the five-year average of 45% at this time of winter.

However, Russian gas supplies flowed normally via pipelines throughout the first half of 2018. Thus efforts to fill storage facilities during 2023 will rely more heavily on liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered to Europe from other parts of the world.

Birol stated that approximately twenty per cent of the gas piped from Russia into Europe is still flowing via pipelines in Ukraine and Turkey.

The reopening of the Chinese economy following the Covid lockdowns is also anticipated to enhance rivalry between Asia and Europe for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

“Some accomplishments regarding clean energy and lowering Russia’s earnings are commendable, but they are not a lasting answer. We have benefited from the mild weather. “We gained some time, which is essential, but there’s still a great deal to do,” he remarked. The process of restoring the massive Freeport LNG export facility in Texas, which had been closed for eight months, began this week, further squeezing the market.

Before the invasion of Ukraine a year ago, the United Kingdom was not dependent on Russian gas, but the growing price of wholesale gas on international markets has impacted UK bills. Next year, gas shortages on the continent might revive fears of winter blackouts in Britain, which has limited gas storage and exports gas-generated energy.